good-sport

You ask in plain language. It answers with its reasoning.

- You Where's the edge on tonight's slate? ↳prop_slate(min_edge: 0.10)good-sport A handful of legs clear the bar. On batter props with a 10%+ edge, the model has hit -2% where the market priced 51% — pitcher strikeouts run overconfident, so they're scored on their own (next question). Two books are tight against the strongest one, so treat it as a lean, not a lock. - You Is the model overconfident on pitcher strikeouts? ↳model_performance(prop: "pitcher_strikeouts")good-sport Yes, about 14 points overconfident across 1863 graded bets, and it's the one prop type running a loss. I'd down-weight it until the re-audit lands. - You Where's the smart money moving? ↳smart_money(sport: "all")good-sport One side has steamed four points of implied probability since open across five books. That's a market signal, not my edge. I'm flagging it, not endorsing it.

It grades itself against what happened. On its batter-prop leans clearing a 10%+ edge, it has hit -2% where the market priced 51%. Pitcher strikeouts run the other way and are scored separately. On thin edges it's noise, and it tells you which is which.

Did it beat the closing line? That's the textbook sign an edge is real. On MLB, 78% of the time. On NHL, 46%: at market, and it says so.

Over the last 30 days, tennis is up 2.0% across 72 graded bets, while MLB game lines came in about break-even. A good analyst shows the flat stretches and the misses, not just the wins.

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